Gold prices are still struggling to turn an intraday rebound into a sustained rally. After briefly falling to $4,654 (a four day low) and rebounding, prices were again rejected near $4,900. In the European session on Friday (February 6), spot gold was trading around $4,859 per ounce.

Today's gold rally came from a shift in global risk sentiment. As stock markets moved erratically and investors tended to be defensive, capital flows to safe-haven assets returned and gold was the beneficiary. At the same time, signs of weakness in the US labor market maintained market expectations that the Fed still has room to ease in 2026, which typically supports non yielding assets like gold.

Currency wise, the slight weakening of the US dollar provided additional room for gold, as gold is priced in dollars. However, this momentum was not strong enough to force a price breakout above $4,900, making gold's movement appear more like a recovery and consolidation phase than a new uptrend.

Geopolitical factors also contribute to maintaining safe haven demand. The White House has emphasized that diplomacy remains President Donald Trump's primary option in dealing with Iran, but military options are said to remain on the table. The combination of "diplomacy is working, the risk isn't gone" keeps gold relevant as a hedge against risk, even though the market hasn't dared to push prices aggressively higher.

What's holding back gold's current momentum is a combination of "hawkish" factors: the market expects the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, to deliver a firmer policy tone than dovish expectations. Furthermore, the derivatives market remains in risk management mode after the CME again increased gold-silver margins, which tends to suppress speculation and make price movements prone to stalling in resistance areas.

Short-term technical map: The $4,900 area remains psychological resistance and a "test of courage" for buyers. As long as it fails to break through and hold above this level, gold is vulnerable to range whipsaw volatility. Key support is at $4,800, then $4,700, and the lower zone of $4,655 (today's low).

In conclusion, gold remains supported by a combination of risk-off sentiment, a subdued dollar, and geopolitical risks but a rally above $4,900 still needs a more decisive catalyst. As long as these mixed signals persist, gold's best chance is for broad consolidation: fluctuating rapidly within a range, while awaiting the next trigger from US data and geopolitical headlines. (arl) [sma]

Source : Newsmaker.id